Why isn’t there a mesh of water leak sensor tape on roof deck plywood?

The “roof is failing” sensor in a house is typically a homeowner noticing a stain on a ceiling.

Wouldn’t it make more sense to put down sensor tape on the plywood roof deck before the peel-and-stick material, shingles, tiles, or whatever are applied? If there is a leak in the roofing system or flashing and water gets down to the wood layer there can be a notification of exactly where the leak is happening.

Even if mass-produced by our brothers, sisters, and binary-resisters in Asia this wouldn’t be cheap, but I still think it would make economic sense given the cost of a roof ($15,000-$150,000) and the cost of repairing water damage in a society where the average skill level falls each year.

It’s an obvious idea so why hasn’t it been done?

Related:

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Remembering Atul Butte

Our friend Atul Butte has died at age 55, a great physician and medical researcher who couldn’t be saved by our most advanced medicines and technology. He was always cheerful and curious.

Of his many online lectures, I think this one captures his spirit and enthusiasm well:

He and I were on opposite sides of the “saliva-soaked face rags for the general public will prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission” debate, but it didn’t affect our friendship. Humans, even MD/PhDs, are social animals and it would have been tough for someone in the San Francisco Bay Area to take the “viruses are smarter than humans” position. Atul emphasized persuasion rather than coercion with respect to masks, unusual for an academic and doubly unusual for a University of California academic. (He did advocate coerced COVID vaccination, though, via employer mandates, and then COVID turned out not to be relevant to his own health and longevity.)

This is a sad loss for those of us who worked with Atul in the Boston area and, I’m sure, for the many younger researchers and docs whom he inspired. Also, on this Father’s Day, a terrible loss for his child. To channel Atul’s spirit, though, I guess we can be more optimistic about the future of medicine because of the techniques that Atul developed and taught to others. I’ll try to remember him every time I hear about a medical insight that came out of looking at a big data set.

From Atul’s PhD advisor:

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Apple in China book, Intro

I recently finished Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company by Patrick McGee, a former reporter for the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times. What’s the scale of what Apple does in China?

The CHIPS and Science Act, which is designed to stimulate computer chip fabrication in America, will cost the US government $52 billion over four years—$3 billion shy of what Apple invested annually in China nearly a decade earlier. Let me underscore this point: Apple’s investments in China, every year for the past decade, are at least quadruple the amount the US commerce secretary considered a once-in-a-generation investment.

What’s the scale of Apple?

The number of Apple devices in active use surpassed 2.35 billion in 2025, led by 1.4 billion iPhone users who spend more than four hours a day immersed in their glowing screens. These users represent the richest quintile of people in the world, and Apple can advertise or promote features to them—wireless payment, television shows, music streaming, fitness offerings—for free. In fact, Google pays Apple close to $20 billion a year just to be the default search engine on the iPhone. The control Apple has over its ecosystem is extraordinary: When in 2021 Apple changed how third parties like Instagram and Facebook could “track users”—ostensibly a move to protect the privacy of iPhone owners—Meta estimated the new policy diminished its annual earnings by $10 billion. Meanwhile, revenue from Apple’s own privacy-first ad business was on a path to grow from $1 billion in 2020 to $30 billion by 2026. One advertising executive characterized the change as going “from playing in the minor leagues to winning the World Series in the span of half a year.” On average, Apple’s Services business earns margins north of 70 percent, double that of its hardware, and the business has been growing at nearly 20 percent a year for six years—all before potentially being supercharged by new artificial intelligence features. In short, the notion that Apple is at its peak is patent nonsense. But there is one Achilles’ heel: The fate of all the company’s hardware production relies on the good graces of America’s largest rival.

Don’t take the tech reporting here as gospel. The author has fallen in love with his subject:

The second force was the advanced nature of the Macintosh operating system (OS). It really was a decade ahead of its time when, in 1984, a boyish and handsome Steve Jobs, then just twenty-eight, unveiled the Mac with dramatic flair to a packed auditorium. When Jobs clicked the mouse—itself a novelty at the time—the computer took the air out of the room by speaking.

(The mouse, of course, was 16 years old in 1984. The graphical user interface, as embodied in the Xerox Alto, was 11 years old.)

The seeds of the App Store, in which Apple would take a cut of all sales, were sown circa 1980:

By the end of 1983, the Apple II “had the largest library of programs of any microcomputer on the market—just over two thousand—meaning that its users could interact with the fullest range of possibilities in the microcomputing world.” But Jobs resented third-party developers as freeloaders. In early 1980, he had a conversation with Mike Markkula, Apple’s chairman, where the two expressed their frustration at the rise of hardware and software groups building businesses around the Apple II. They asked each other: “Why should we allow people to make money off of us? Off of our innovations?” An attendee of the meeting would recount, years later, that Apple began to “fight” all third-party development.

The book is strong on recounting the rise of contract manufacturing in the 1980s and 1990s and on the history of Foxconn:

Foxconn had the humblest of origins. In 1974, two years before Apple was started out of a garage, twenty-three-year-old Terry Gou founded Hon Hai Plastics out of a shed. Gou, who’d just completed his duty in the Taiwanese army, founded the company with $7,500.

As the PC revolution took off in the early 1980s, Gou got in on the ground floor and created a name for himself making reliable sockets and connectors—small components that facilitate communication between different parts of a computer. The conn in Foxconn—Hon Hai’s international name—refers to connectors. “Fox” is just an animal he likes.

Employees were given a Little Red Book featuring the sayings of Terry Gou, some of which were also plastered on the otherwise bare walls. The aphorisms ranged from inspirational to threatening. “Work hard on the job today or work hard to find a job tomorrow,” said one.

In 1999, it was a company with $1.8 billion of revenue, far smaller than Solectron, SCI, or Flextronics, its US rivals. By 2010, Foxconn revenues were $98 billion, more than those of its five biggest competitors combined. And Foxconn’s extraordinary growth in those eleven years is the consequence of one client more than any other: Apple.

How much did China grow along with Foxconn?

By the time Mao died in 1976, China was poorer than sub-Saharan Africa. … In just twenty-five years, Shenzhen’s population grew a hundredfold.

Europe is poor compared to the U.S. Why not assemble stuff in Europe?

Once the Shenzhen line for iMacs was up and running, Foxconn established sites on two other continents. In Europe, Foxconn executive Jim Chang found a Soviet-era electronics site in Pardubice, a city of 100,000 people sixty miles east of Prague. The site had previously been run by a state-owned company called Tesla, whose specialty was radar systems and whose biggest client had been the government of Iran. The site had an eerie feel to it, like it had been hit by a neutron bomb. Forklifts stood motionless on the floor and cups of tea, their contents long gone cold, had been left on the tables. In May 2000, Foxconn was able to buy the plant for just 102 million CSK (2.9 million), a fire-sale price because it was bringing in jobs. Foxconn also won from the government a ten-year tax holiday.

The experience in the Czech Republic was an important proving ground for Foxconn and its hub model, but what it really demonstrated was that producing hardware in China was cheaper, more efficient, and less subject to media scrutiny. In China, assembly got done at incredible speed and with few complaints. Workers did twelve-hour shifts and lived nearby in dorms. At the Czech site, workers put in fewer hours and were represented by a trade union; they protested conditions and spoke to the press. Plans to build dormitories met local criticism and were abandoned. Over the course of a decade, Foxconn expanded its work in the Czech Republic, continuing to build for Apple, adding another location, and taking on production for Hewlett-Packard, Sony, and Cisco.

At one point, according to an ex-worker named Andrea, workers making Apple products didn’t receive an annual bonus as they were promised, so they threatened a “strike emergency” just before the ramp-up ahead of Christmas. “Afraid,” the Foxconn managers deposited the bonuses within a week. The incident triggered an audit by Apple, which interviewed workers about their experience. Apple, Andrea said, advocated for better conditions, but “instead Foxconn closed the division within half a year and 330 people were dismissed.” Around the same time, in August 2009, Foxconn shut its Fullerton site, too. How Foxconn laid the Czech workers off is worth highlighting. Mass dismissals—defined as laying off more than thirty people—need to be reported to the Labor Office, but it was important for Foxconn to avoid scrutiny. “What Foxconn did is they dismissed twenty-nine workers every month,” Andrea said. “Each month, regularly, they fired twenty-nine people.” The threat of a single strike ended all large-scale Apple assembly in Europe.

China ended up being the only answer for Apple and pretty much everyone else in the electronics world.

… by 2005, Jobs grasped that there was no going back. That year, a subordinate suggested that a certain project be done in the United States, and Jobs responded curtly. “I tried it. It didn’t work.” The results—in volume, efficiency, and price—were unmatched.

I’ll write more about this book in subsequent posts.

Reminder of what was considered attractive at the time Apple moved manufacturing offshore (source):

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Who is the most famous gay person not famous for being gay?

A friend used to enjoy quizzing people with “Who is the most famous tall person not famous for being tall?” (Answer: Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, 6’7″, who stopped the inflation of the 1960s and 1970s caused by JFK’s/Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society (Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, etc.) and Vietnam War; Alternative Answer: Michael Crichton, 6’9″, author of Jurassic Park and The Andromeda Strain, which might be worth rereading in light of coronapanic)

The question for today: “Who is the most famous gay person not famous for being gay?” Let’s limit this to people born within the last 100 years (i.e., 1925 or later) so as to avoid being forced on conjecture/rumor (e.g., Nikola Tesla is out).

My choice: Andy Warhol. He was what we today call “openly gay”, but nobody calls him a “gay artist”.

Happy Middle of Pride Month to everyone who celebrates! (below: at the Milwaukee art museum, July 2024, with a little help from Uniqlo)

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Almost time for Queer Faith Festival in the San Francisco Bay Area

Happy No Kings Day to those who celebrate. Also Happy 79th birthday to King Donald I and Happy 250th birthday to the U.S. Army, founded on June 14, 1775 as part of the treasonous rebellion against legitimate British rule.

A Deplorable Californian sent me this event calendar from Grace Cathedral in San Francisco:

Pack up the kids because the online calendar shows that it is almost time for the “Drag Queen Story Hour for families and children” in the East Bay:

If you’re going to stay in the City, the cathedral itself is hosting “Queer Religion: The Exhibition”:

As a queer atheist Marshall wants to spotlight and celebrate prominent openly queer leaders in religion. These subjects risk so much personally in order to live in their truth and create positive change within the monotheistic religions. The subjects captured provide a safe space within institutions that historically have promoted queerphobia.

“Without a bit of queerness, religion can grow rigid and sour. Queer people and perspectives offer renewal, an opening out to those who would otherwise turn away. The ultimate queerness we can approach is the divine, the totally other which is also the elusive meaning within ourselves.” — Rabbi Mark Solomon

Maybe this wise rabbi has the explanation for why a lot of things don’t work out, i.e., due to “without a bit of queerness”.

In Boston, the assumption is that everyone who hates Kings also loves 2SLGBTQQIA+ (Boston.com) because the suggested way to demonstrate against Kings is to show up on the route of the Pride parade:

The groups are calling the demonstration alongside the Pride parade, “No Kings, but Yaaas Queen!” Spectators at the Pride parade are being encouraged to bring “Pride flags and signs showing steadfast support for LGBTQIA+ rights and protesting the tyranny of a fascist administration that seeks to erase our communities from public life, American history, and our nation’s future.”

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The #Resistance in Bangor, Maine

What does a gathering of diversity advocates who’ve chosen to live in the whitest part of America’s whitest state look like? June 11, 2025, Bangor, Maine:

As in Park City, Utah, the city officially supports Pride with tax dollars by placing Biden-style trans-enhanced Rainbow Flags on every downtown lamppost:

The U.S. quasi-embassy in Taiwan explains, using your federal tax dollars, that these official city-purchased flags are missing the intersex circle:

I hope that the Taiwanese, thus educated, won’t make the same mistake as the City of Bangor!

Within a block of the rally, a “Pride Proud” church that believes Black Lives Matter even if no member of the congregation has seen a Black person lately (not shown: a guy coming out of the church wearing a “Let Gaza Live” button; the IDF would have a tough time indeed if Maine progressives turned their words into action!):

A fabric/yarn store a few steps away:

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Air India 171 Boeing 787 crash questions

Friends have been asking my opinion regarding the recent Boeing 787 crash in India. Based on the fact that the 787’s gear wasn’t retracting or retracted, the most common speculation right now seems to be that the flight crew mistakenly retracted flaps rather than gear at the “positive rate” point just above the runway.

I’m not typed in the B787 so I can’t say for sure how far apart flaps retraction and rotation speed are. In the CRJ, the following are true:

  • the plane won’t take off without some flaps down (i.e., even with full power from two engines it will just go off the end of a 15,000′ runway)
  • rotation speed (Vr) and flaps retraction speed (V2+10) are reasonably close, separated by perhaps 15 seconds (admittedly that’s with gear coming up); see “Everything about V Speeds Explained”
  • flaps on an airliner move rather slowly
  • with two engines at full power, the plane will climb reasonably well even if the configuration isn’t perfect
  • given a long runway, less than full power is typically used for takeoff so as to reduce wear on the engines and stretch out the time to overhaul

So… I have no idea what caused this tragedy, but I don’t think that “proper configuration; proper rotation speed; full power; flaps instead of gear just after takeoff” explains a failure to climb. Gear adds drag, but the plane needs to be able to fly in a clean configuration on just one engine and, therefore, with double the power it can easily overpower the gear drag. An inadvertent flap retraction also shouldn’t have caused a crash because, once off the ground, the plane accelerates very quickly toward and beyond V2. The Ahmedabad airport is at sea level and has an 11,500′ runway, which might enable reduced thrust to be used even given the reported 43C temperature. On the other hand, pilots who are sinking would likely push the thrust levers full forward as a reflex.

An obvious explanation is that the aircraft lost power in both engines shortly after takeoff, but it is difficult to think of a way that two turbine engines can fail at the same time. It happened to a Boeing 777 landing at Heathrow due to high altitude icing, but that’s impossible during a hot summer takeoff. It happened to Airbus single-pilot hero Captain Sully (Jeff Skiles nowhere to be found in the media!).

Maybe the fuel was contaminated, but jet engines will burn almost anything and why didn’t the engines quit during taxi?

Separately, should “British man” Vishwash Kumar Ramesh (Guardian) spend all of his future earnings on lottery tickets?

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Florida question: Why isn’t a compressed air source a standard part of poolside equipment?

Every Florida pool has an equipment pad nearby with electric power, sometimes natural gas (electric heat pumps are better these days because they’re cheaper to run and can also chill the pool), and filtration. The question for today: Why isn’t there always an electric air compressor on the pad? Given the popularity of inflatables why wouldn’t there be a permanently stationed powerful compressed air source to top up rafts, etc.?

Most compressors don’t seem to be designed to handle the elements, but here’s one with potential:

Has anyone ever seen something similar mounted near a pool? If not, why not?

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Wall Street Journal says that Jupiter, Florida is mostly insufferably rich golfers

“Wealthy Home Buyers Are Flocking to Jupiter—and Not Just for the Golf” (Wall Street Journal, beginning of Pride 2025; no-paywall version):

Toward the northern end [of Palm Beach County] is Jupiter, with a population of about 61,000. The beachy city with a classic Old Florida feel is a mecca for golfers, especially professional ones. “There are at least 75 PGA Tour players in this area,” says Brad Faxon, an eight-time PGA Tour Champion and Jupiter local. The city has nine golf clubs and around a dozen-and-half golf courses, according to Palm Beach County Sports Commission; about 133 more courses are elsewhere in Palm Beach County. Many of Jupiter’s courses are within private, exclusive country clubs, where initiation fees can go as high as close to $1 million. Still, golf isn’t the only reason people live in Jupiter. Residents also seek it out for favorable taxes, good schools and proximity to multiple airports.

They zoomed in on the house next door to ours:

Actually, the WSJ does incongruously (and without explanation) note that the typical house or condo in Jupiter is almost free:

“The price point is broad,” says Leland Rykse, a Jupiter-based real estate agent with ONE Sotheby’s International Realty. Luxury properties can list around $50 million to $70 million, whereas there are also typical midmarket options. Jupiter’s median sale price was $717,500 in March 2025, according to Redfin.

Consistent with everything in our media being lies, the WSJ provides a misleading statistic (“median sale price” includes 1BR condos). More seriously, the WSJ says that prices are going up when, in fact, they are likely going down (the WSJ doesn’t bother to adjust for inflation or the fact that people keep improving their houses so a square foot from 2022 isn’t as high quality as a square foot from 2025):

We humble folks in the MacArthur Foundation-developed Abacoa should just be grateful that our town was noticed even if our neighborhoods weren’t!

Perhaps coincidentally, the Deplorables with Dollar Signs (Fox Business) did an article just a week after the WSJ… “The new Palm Beach? Jupiter, FL, is drawing luxury homebuyers”:

Seth Mansfield, an agent with Douglas Elliman and a Forte Luxe sales executive, told FOX Business that he is seeing a lot of wealthy people come to Jupiter “because they are able to enjoy a storybook lifestyle in a relaxed setting.”

I would love to meet these people living in a relaxed storybook!

“The median price for a single-family home 5 years ago was $530,000 and the ceiling price was $12,250,000. Over the past year, those numbers are $980,000 and $48,000,000, respectively,” he said. “I don’t believe we’ve seen Jupiter’s ceiling.” … “In addition to the steady migration from the northeast and California, we’re seeing more and more buyers shift their attention from Palm Beach to Jupiter,” Mansfield said. “You can get the same house on the same Bahama blue water for a 50-60% discount relative to Palm Beach, with access to all the creature comforts that you’re used to, even more options for golf, and Palm Beach is still at your fingertips. I truly believe Jupiter is undervalued, as crazy as that may sound to some.”

This does sound crazy! But maybe the market will just bifurcate. Peasant neighborhoods like ours will continue to depreciate while the handful of elite gated communities and waterfront areas will zoom upwards. (All over Florida markets are going in opposite directions for older condos and houses and new condos/houses. A house built prior to 2002 when the statewide building code went into effect can slide three percent (real dollars) every year while an adjacent house built in 2022 is appreciating.)

(Note that Fox isn’t as incompetent as the Wall Street Journal. Fox does not mix in the prices of 1BR condos when reporting on what “houses” cost.)

Zooming out to the national real estate news

Rising home prices and high mortgage rates have pushed the median age of homebuyers to a record-high 56 years old in 2024, up from 45 in 2021. In 1981, the median age of homebuyers was 31 years old, see chart below.

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Los Angeles is peaceful and also too dangerous for a platoon of soldiers to walk around

Reason to love Legacy Media #479… we are informed that

  • Los Angeles is peaceful and therefore the (defunded?) LA police did not require any assistance
  • Los Angeles cannot be safely traversed by a group of soldiers clad in body armor and armed with M4 rifles (maybe they could be safe in this peaceful city if enclosed within an M1 Abrams tank or Bradley Fighting Vehicle?)

From the Financial Times:

A growing number of military veterans and serving officers have spoken out against President Trump’s decision to deploy marines and National Guard troops to LA, calling it a misuse of executive power that puts soldiers’ lives at risk

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